The Doomsday Clock which has appeared on the cover of every issue of The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists is an estimate of how close the human race is to annihilation via nuclear war. The clock itself has been around since 1947, and is physically located at the University of Chicago. It originally was set at 7 minutes to midnight - meaning that in the grand scheme of the world, we were at that point in our history very close to nuclear war. The clock has been repositioned 17 times in the last 60 years in response to international events. Sometimes a little bit closer to midnight, and a few times a little bit further away.
The decision to move the clock is made by the board of directors of the bulletin - which includes 18 Nobel Laureates.
The clock currently sits at 7 minutes to midnight. It will be moved closer to midnight on January 17th, putting us in historical times. The purpose behind the changing of the clock time is due to nuclear ambitions in North Korea and Iran, the growing list of unsecured nuclear weapons from the former USSR, the "launch ready" status of 2,000 U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons (of about 25,000), escalating terrorism, and pressure to increase the civilian use of nuclear technology that potentially escalates the threat of weapon proliferation.
How much the clock will be moved has not been announced, but based on history, it will be moved at least 2 minutes, potentially as much as 5 minutes. If it were to move 5 minutes, we would be closer to destruction as we have ever been. Judging from past movements, I would guess that the clock will move 3 minutes closer to midnight - putting it at 11:56 PM.
| Year | Movement |
Time |
Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1947 | Original Setting |
11:53 |
|
| 1949 | 4 minutes closer |
11:57 |
USSR tests their first atomic bomb |
| 1953 | 1 minutes closer |
11:58 |
US and USSR test nuclear bombs within 9 months of one another |
| 1960 | 5 minutes further |
11:53 | Increased scientific cooperation and public understanding of the dangers of nuclear weapons |
| 1963 | 5 minutes further |
11:48 | US and USSR sign the Partial Test Ban Treaty |
| 1968 | 5 minutes closer |
11:53 | France and China acquire and test nuclear weapons, war in the Middle East (surprise, surprise), Vietnam, and India |
| 1969 | 3 minutes further |
11:50 | US Senate ratifies the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty |
| 1972 | 2 minutes further |
11:48 | SALT I and Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty signed by US and USSR |
| 1974 | 3 minutes closer |
11:51 | Inia tests a nuclear device; SALT II talks stall |
| 1980 | 2 minutes closer |
11:53 | Increase in terrorism; further problems in US/USSR political climate; increase in nationalist wars |
| 1981 | 3 minutes closer |
11:56 | Arms race escalation; conflicts in Afghanistan, South Africa, and Poland |
| 1984 | 1 minute closer |
11:57 | Arms race escalation |
| 1988 | 3 minutes further |
11:54 | US and Soveit Union plan to eliminate intermediate range nuclear weapons |
| 1990 | 4 minutes further |
11:50 | Destruction of the Berlin Wall; Cold War nearing an end; anti-communist movements in Eastern Europe seeing success |
| 1991 | 7 minutes further |
11:43 | US and Soviets sign the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty |
| 1995 | 3 minutes closer |
11:46 | Global military spending continues at an alarming rate; concerns about nuclear proliferation as a result of the political climate in Russia (or lack thereof) |
| 1998 | 5 minutes closer |
11:51 | Inia and Pakistan test nuclear weapons; US and Russia run into problems reducing stockpiles |
| 2002 | 2 minutes closer |
11:53 | Little progress on global nuclear disarmament. US rejects arms control treaties and announces intentions to withraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty; terrorists seek to acquire nuclear weapons |
| 2007 | ? minutes closer |
11:54+ | Iran and North Korea have directed serious efforts to acquire nuclear weapons technology, continued poor security with Russian nuclear weapons, escalating terrorist activity, increase pressure for civilian use of nuclear technology |
The last time we had four movements in a row towards midnight was the decade between 1974 and 1984. It was followed up with 3 consecutive movements away from midnight within 3 years - 1988 to 1991. Of course in 1991 we invaded Iraq so things went a little downhill at that point.
Midnight in the Garden of Nuclear War Commentary
